The Monte Carlo Rally has been run and won, and the 2016 World Rally Championship has begun with a number of changes, including updated car specifications and different drivers at some of the factory teams.

Yet two things remain unchanged in the WRC, and we are faced with the very likelihood that at least one of those won’t change any time soon.

The first was that ex-Formula 1 driver, Robert Kubica, finished his rally off the road – a common occurrence in the Polish star’s short, but eventful, WRC career.

To be fair, Kubica went off the road at around 20km/h on sheet ice that would have been hard to stand up on, but he was off the road again nonetheless.

Yet with his WRC program short of funds and with another bent and battered Ford Fiesta RS WRC, this may be the last we see of the fast, but erratic Kubica for some time.

The second common theme at Monte Carlo was yet another victory to Sebastien Ogier, his third in a row in the Principality, and a remarkable 33rd success in a WRC event.

Clearly Ogier is the star pupil in the class of WRC drivers, and we could be set for another season of Ogier and Volkswagen dominance that will result in a fourth straight title, but there is at least a small glimmer of hope that he could be pushed a little harder than he was in the previous three seasons.

Kris-Meeke-action-Monte-Carlo-RallyKris Meeke was Ogier's only real challenger on the 2016 Monte Carlo Rally.At Monte, Kris Meeke was the only driver who appeared capable of matching the pace of the Frenchman, which was the one real bright spot amidst a predictable round one result.

For an Irishman, Meeke’s pace on the snow and ice was a revelation, and had it not been for an impact with a rock that holed his Citroen’s sump, he could well have challenged Ogier for the first victory of the year.

Meeke has so far had an up and down WRC career, setting brilliant stage times that have been interspersed with a number of high profile accidents that have cost him results, and sometimes the respect of his team bosses. After Monte Carlo, it seems his luck isn’t ready to change just yet.

Other drivers, including Ogier, hit the same rock that he did, yet they continued on unperturbed. Not so for Meeke.

Similarly, just as the Citroen proved to be the only car capable of matching the VWs in Monte Carlo, Meeke is on a team-enforced restricted program this year that won’t allow him the opportunity to challenge for the title, even if he was fast enough for long enough.

So who does that leave as Ogier’s biggest challenger?

It would appear to be his VW team-mate, and not the expected Jari-Matti Latvala. Andreas Mikkelsen was second in Monte Carlo, picking up the pieces after Latvala (not for the first time) made a costly error that cost him valuable places, and even more valuable championship points.

Clearly, Latvala is still an unfulfilled talent. A driver with the speed to win multiple rallies ever year, lapses throughout each season have so far halted any chance he had of lifting the championship trophy.

Mikkelsen, on the other hand, is getting faster with each season and, if given a free reign to push the limits from VW, he could be in for a real breakout season.

M-Sport’s Mads Ostberg is another likely challenger, but does the Norwegian have the consistent speed to take it up to Ogier on a regular basis?

At least one leading WRC journalist we spoke to believes that Ostberg is past his best, while his new team-mate, Eric Camilli, has just one event in a World Rally Car to his name, and that was in Monte Carlo were he finished off the road.

Sebastien-Ogier-headshotSebastien Ogier has followed on from where countryman Sebastien Loeb left off.At Hyundai, Thierry Neuville is often an event-by-event proposition, as demonstrated in the second half of last season where he seemed to be inexplicably off the pace and a shadow of his former self. Third at Monte Carlo will, however, lift his confidence no end.

Dani Sordo is a proven podium getter, but that was in the championship-winning Citroen squad when Sebastien Loeb was his team-mate. Like most of his rivals, the question remains as to whether the Spaniard has the speed on a consistent basis to challenge King Ogier.

Hayden Paddon is, to be fair, at least another season away from being a regular winning chance, although podium finishes will again be on the Kiwi’s radar this year following last season’s remarkable second placing in Italy.

So, in conclusion, there isn’t much to look forward to unless you’re a Sebastien Ogier fan. For sure, there will be exciting rallies and other winners throughout 2016, but putting your money on Ogier to win at least eight of the 13 rallies this year wouldn’t really be considered as being a big gamble.

Still, there are things to look forward to, including the impending addition of Toyota to the WRC field in 2017, the return of China to the calendar, and the move of Rally Australia to the hotter and more volatile weather patterns of November.

But, if you’re holding your breath for only a third different World Rally Championship winner since 2004, I have just one piece of advice for you – don’t.

- Peter Whitten

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